The aggravation of negative geopolitical processes in the world and the continued sanctions policy towards Russia are the main reasons for the implementation and development of the policy of import substitution and increasing the economic sovereignty of the state. Additional conditions for this are a total ban on the import of innovative products and technologies, the termination of contractual relations of unfriendly states and the withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market, which create an economic crisis in the domestic markets of Russia, causing forced substitution of imported products and the reorientation of Russian companies to the BRICS and Southeast countries Asia. To assess the impact of unfavorable factors on the Russian economy, the implementation of processes of substitution of imported technologies and products, the paper presents analytical tools for diagnosing and forecasting import substitution processes in the industrial sector of Russia. The work reveals the main goal of import substitution - industrial production of products with high added value, in demand in the domestic and foreign markets, the directions of state policy influencing the industrial sector, the need to introduce categories: “economic sovereignty”, “technological superiority”, “innovation centers of excellence”, reflecting implementation of innovative activities in terms of import substitution. Taking into account these categories, the authors propose a diagnostic and forecasting toolkit for “innovative superiority of domestic products”, representing a complex of technologies for “innovative superiority” of industrial enterprises that form the basis for the rapid development of innovation.  The article presents generalized areas of research by scientists on the policy of import substitution, as well as theories of economic sovereignty, which originate from the theory of mercantilism, which determined the use of import substitution tools in order to limit imports and develop exports, organize domestic production to protect national interests. Analytical tools for diagnosing and forecasting import substitution of innovations in industry, in the context of economic sovereignty, have been identified. The authors proposed a methodological approach to the formation and a system of indicators for analytical tools for diagnosing and forecasting the processes of industrial import substitution, using the production function of the enterprise, based on the identified dependence: with the introduction of domestic import substitution technologies, production volumes initially decrease, and as production adapts to new technologies increase significantly, which is reflected in the nature of the production function - its slope changes.