Introduction

Currently, the global economy is undergoing qualitative structural changes related to the revaluation of economic values based on the principles of digital technologies, as well as the accelerated transition of developed countries to the economy of knowledge and the implementation of financial services. Thus, the determination of further guidelines for the development of financial technology in the Russian financial market is of particular importance.

The modern fintech industry is represented by fintech companies, fintech startups and traditional participants of the financial market, introducing innovative fintech solutions in their activities. In general, fintech is a hybrid market, which presents products that implement joint solutions in the field of finance and IT-technologies [Zageeva, L.A., 2018].

The main areas of the fintech industry are a fast payment system, an asset management service, peer-to-peer lending (P2P), crowdfunding, RegTech, Big Data, data security, blockchain, cryptocurrency technology, et al.

A lot of foreign and Russian economists have devoted their research to the problems of development and implementation of financial technology, however, it should be said that consideration of the future prospects of Russian fintech is an almost untouched area of research. Thus, the purpose of the study is to consider the prospects for the functioning of the Russian market of financial technology in the context of digitalization, to elucidate the main prerequisites for its formation and key barriers.

Main part

Speaking about the development of the fintech industry in the Russian Federation, it should be noted that the Russian financial sector is developing in accordance with global trends and is characterized by a high level of fintech services adoption due to the technological capabilities of classical participants – banks. Thus, according to experts, in Russia 95 % of all innovative developments are in the banking sector. Moreover, unlike most foreign countries, Russian banks initially showed and continue to be active in introducing new digital technologies and innovative products. Identification systems, cloud technologies, Big Data analysis and artificial intelligence are among them.

In general, four promising fintech segments can be distinguished here: payments and transfers, financing, insurance, and money management. The development of them can create competitive advantages for Russia at the international level.

Let us consider the prospects of these areas in the period of 2020-2035.

Thus, at the present stage of development, the Payments and Transfers segment is a key direction in introducing fintech innovations worldwide. According to statistics, by the end of 2019, the total volume of the segment of payments and transfers using modern financial technologies amounted to only 1 % of the total world turnover of non-cash funds (or $ 9 trillion) [Dannye venchurnogo skanera].

Figure 1 illustrates the forecast of the volume of transactions using fintech services for payments and transfers in Russia, billion US dollars.

Рис. 1. Прогноз объема транзакций с использованием финтех-сервисов
для платежей и переводов в России (млрд. долл.)

Fig. 1. Forecast of the volume of transactions using fintech services for payments
and transfers in Russia (billion US dollars)

Based on the data in Figure 1, it is possible to conclude that according to some experts, the payment and transfer segment will continue to gain momentum over the next 15 years, increasing by an average of 33 % per year and will reach $ 14.9 trillion by 2035. Moreover, it is expected that the level of financial technology adoption into the segment of payments and transfers in Russia will be about 96 % by 2035. Nowadays, this segment is focused mainly on individual customers, then in the medium term, the B2B segment of the e-commerce market is expected to grow, which will create demand from companies for instant and less costly payment solutions.

Speaking about financing, which has found its distribution through online services, it should be said that it has only just begun to emerge in the Russian Federation. The total volume of this segment by the end of 2019 amounted to about $ 1.2 billion.

Figure 2 illustrates the forecast of the volume of financing using fintech services in Russia (in billions of US dollars).

Рис. 2. Прогноз объема финансирования с использованием финтехуслуг в России (млрд. долл.)

Fig. 2. Forecast of the volume of financing using fintech services in Russia (billion US dollars)

Thus, in the Financing segment, it is expected that 47.2 % of financial services will be implemented using fintech products and services in 2035. It should be noted that in connection with the active spread of the Internet in all areas of society and the rapid introduction of innovative financial technology, the so-called alternative online tools for providing financing have become widespread, the key focus of which is P2P lending (55.3 % of turnover of the entire market). In the medium term, the financing segment will continue to grow by approximately 51 % per annum and will reach $ 178.6 billion by 2035. For its part, the level of financial technology adoption in Russia in the Financing segment will reach 36.7 % by 2035.

The insurance market is also significantly affected by the development of the fintech industry, which is shown in Figure 3.

Рис. 3. 3. Прогноз объема страховых премий, уплаченных поставщикам страховых
 финтех-услуг в России (млрд. долл.)

Fig. 3. Forecast of the volume of insurance premiums paid to insurance fintech services providers
in Russia (billion US dollars)

According to the data presented in Figure 3, it can be concluded that in the medium term, the fintech insurance segment in Russia will continue to grow by an average of 19.2 % per year and will reach $ 4.9 billion by 2035. Among the Insurance segment, it is possible to note such a key and dynamically developing area as “smart” insurance. The essence of this direction is that in fact the insurance model remains the same, the changes affect only the approach to the formation of the cost of services, in which calculations based on aggregated data are increasingly giving way to a deeper analysis of personal information collected using telemetry technology. It should also be noted that such a direction as the P2P insurance market is associated with the active spread of innovative financial technologies in most sectors of the Russian economy, where there are such basic forms of risk minimization as loans, pledges, prepayments, et al [Williams-Grut O.].

Financial technology has a significant impact on the private capital management market and the work of financial consultants, which is reflected in the automation of processes such as asset allocation and capital management, the formation of new investment markets, the emergence of specialized products and services for traditionally unprofitable clients, and the increase in the efficiency of quantitative risk assessment [Katrich, A.S., 2017].

Modern financial technologies are mainly aimed at meeting the needs of individuals. Among the innovative financial technologies in the Capital management segment, it is advisable to distinguish robotic consulting, services for controlling personal finances, and social trading that allow fintech companies and traditional participants in the financial market to expand their target audience and scale their business. Robotization of the process of forming an investment profile and making investment decisions can significantly reduce costs, while increasing the reliability of analytical data and almost eliminates any errors related to the human factor [World’s Largest Banks, 2020].

Thus, it is possible to note that the development of modern financial technology, combined with the recognition of companies and the rather low cost of attracting customers, allows providing financial services to users at lower fees, which opens up a wide range of prospects for the capital management segment for all market participants.

Let us consider the forecast of the volume of funds under the management of innovative services for wealth management in Russia, billion US dollars (Figure 4).

Рис. 4. Прогноз объема средств под управлением инновационных услуг
по управлению капиталом в России (млрд. долл.)

Fig. 4. Forecast of the volume of funds under the management of innovative services
for wealth management in Russia (billion US dollars)

Thus, based on the data in Figure 4, it is possible to conclude that at present the segment of roboconsulting, like other segments of innovative financial technologies in Russia, is only emerging, but in the future it will continue to grow. Hence, with the global market for roboconsulting at 140 billion US dollars (according to Morgan Stanley), the turnover of the Russian market in 2019 amounted to only 0.01 billion US dollars. Despite this fact, it is expected that the volume of the segment will continue to grow on average by 63.2 % per year and by 2035 will amount to $ 42.6 billion, with an adoption level of 46 %.

It should be noted that the development prospects of all four segments in the period 2020-2035 can be influenced by a number of factors, positive and negative, structured
in table.

Considering the prospects and taking into account the global prerequisites and the main barriers, it is possible to present the forecast for the development of promising fintech segments in Russia by 2035 (Figure 5).

Таблица

Глобальные предпосылки и основные барьеры развития финтех-индустрии в России

Table

Global prerequisites and major barriers to the development of the fintech industry in Russia

Рис. 5.  Прогноз развития перспективных финтех-сегментов в России к 2035 году

Fig. 5. Forecast of the development of promising fintech segments in Russia by 2035