DOI:
10.18413/2409-1634-2024-10-4-0-5
УГРОЗЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ ОРЕНБУРГСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ
Aннотация
Данное исследование посвящено анализу экономической безопасности сельских территорий в контексте современных вызовов. Авторы подчеркивают, что экономическая безопасность сельских территорий является ключевым фактором устойчивого развития страны, особенно в контексте необходимости обеспечения продовольственной безопасности. Основное внимание в исследовании уделено Оренбургской области, где сельские территории занимают значительную часть территории. Авторами проанализирован широкий спектр данных и выявлены ключевые угрозы экономической безопасности сельских территорий, связанные с социально-демографическими процессами и экономическими отношениями. В статье авторами проведен сравнительный анализ численности населения Оренбургской области, динамики численности сельского населения, динамики сельской миграции как важнейших составляющих экономической безопасности сельских территорий. Представлена структура государственной программы «Комплексное развитие сельских территорий Оренбургской области». Анализ реализации государственной программы «Комплексное развитие сельских территорий» в Оренбургской области позволяет утверждать, что основными угрозами экономической безопасности сельских территорий региона являются угрозы демографического характера и угрозы дефицита высококвалифицированных кадров. Их можно рассматривать как сдерживающие факторы устойчивого развития сельских территорий Оренбургской области. Выявлены угрозы экономической безопасности сельских территорий Оренбургской области и определены пути их нейтрализации.
Ключевые слова: экономическая безопасность, сельские территории, угрозы экономической безопасности, комплексное развитие
К сожалению, текст статьи доступен только на Английском
Introduction
Economic security in a broad sense is considered as the most important characteristic of an economic system at any level (from an enterprise to the state), which implies its readiness to provide favorable conditions for the life and activities of citizens, reliable supply of the economy with necessary resources, as well as purposeful achievement of national and state interests [Alieva M.Z., 2020; Sheila, M. et al., 2018].
Both domestic and foreign scientists dealt with the problems of economic security of rural areas: Aliyeva M.Z., Kaneva M.K., Kolodina E.A., Spasenkova S.V., Larina T.N., Muravyeva M.V., Milovanov I.A. Voronovskaya O.V., Belyaeva Yu.A., Salikov I.I., Zolotareva T.A., Borodkina, Isbagieva G.S., Bratarchuk T.V., J.Francisco, Castellano-Alvarez., Rafael, Robina-Ramírez., Francisco, Silva, Sheila, Mammen., Ann, A., Berry., Carolyn, Bird., Kelly, D., Chandler, Jason, Henderson, Norman, Makoto, Su, Alette, Leur, Thanyani, Selby., Madzivhandila., Ferdinand, Niyimbanira.
In modern realities, when agricultural areas play a key role in the economic development of the country, the term "economic security" acquires special significance and versatility. It covers a whole range of measures and strategic actions aimed at achieving one of the main goals – ensuring sustainable, stable and continuous progress in the economic sphere of rural areas. This includes not only the desire to continuously improve the living standards and well-being of the population, but also the creation of an effective system of protection against various threats, both external and internal risks, which can negatively affect the economic well-being of agricultural regions. Thus, "economic security" in the agrarian context is a comprehensive strategy, the purpose of which is not just to maintain the current level of economic development, but also to ensure its dynamic and sustainable growth, which is the key to long–term well-being and prosperity of rural areas [Kaneva M.K., 2018].
The main part
In the context of the need to ensure the country's food security, the role of rural areas has increased significantly. Many agricultural scientists and practitioners at various levels have recognized that at present, many rural areas of our country are rich not only in picturesque landscapes and clean air, but also in significant potential due to their unique natural resources. These territories are distinguished by a variety of cultures, which makes them special. In addition, they have economic opportunities that, if properly used, can become a powerful impetus to development, and a rich historical heritage is part of the cultural heritage. Effective and optimal management of all these assets and resources can lay a solid foundation for sustainable and harmonious progress. This, in turn, contributes not only to the increase. The living standards of the local population, but also the overall improvement of the well- being of society as a whole. Thus, the proper allocation and use of resources in rural areas can have a positive impact not only on their residents, but also on the urban population, contributing to the balanced development of all regions of the country [Jason H., 2006].
Russian and foreign scientists identify the following types of threats inherent in the economic security of the region, which can be identified for rural areas [Muravyeva M.V. et al., 2017; Francisco J. et al., 2024]:
1) threats related to socio- demographic processes: population outflow, falling birth rate, social stratification of societies, etc.;
2) threats related to economic relations (unstable dynamics of production, job cuts, shortage of qualified personnel, etc. To protect against various threats to economic security, it is necessary to identify them in a timely manner and develop preventive or neutralizing measures [Norman M.S., 2020].
Within the framework of this study, a thorough analysis was carried out, which is based on an extensive array of data from the Orenburg region. Special attention was paid to rural areas, which, as is known, occupy a significant part of the territory of this region. It is important to note that rural areas are the object of special interest for comprehensive study. The data allow us to get a more complete picture of the current state and prospects of rural areas in the Orenburg region.
The Orenburg Region is a multinational border region. The share of the region's territory in the Russian Federation is 0.73%, and the population is 1.53%. It consists of the following administrative-territorial units:
- Z5 municipal districts;
- 12 cities;
- 1708 rural settlements.
The territory of the region is 124 thousand square kilometers, cities occupy 2.9% of its territory, districts – 97%. The population of the region according to Rosstat is 1,841,377 people (2023). The population density is 14.89 people/km2 (as of January 1, 2023). The urban population is 60.21% (2022).
As of January 1, 2023, 1,175,414 people
(61.07%) lived in cities, 749,164 people
(38.93%) lived in villages. (Figure 1).
Рис. 1. Динамика численности населения Оренбургской области, чел.
Fig. 1. Population dynamics in the Orenburg region, people
The Orenburg Region occupies the seventh position in terms of the number of inhabitants in the Volga Federal District and the 29th among all regions in the Russian Federation. Since 2008, there has been a steady decline.
The purpose of the study is to identify the factors affecting the economic security of rural areas in the Orenburg region and to develop recommendations on minimizing threats and increasing the sustainability of agriculture.
Methods
The research methodology is based on the principles of dialectical logic. In the course of studying the materials, methods of systematic analysis of theoretical and practical material, general scientific methods and techniques were used. The materials for this work were the official websites, scientific literature, and statistical data of the state statistics service. The MS Excel spreadsheet
processor was used to organize the calculations.
Results and discussions
Rural territories provide production activities in such important sectors of the economy as energy, food, raw materials and, last but not least, are a crucial economic base for the progress of the agro-industrial complex [Isbagieva G.S., 2022]. The strategic task of the state is to ensure sustainable progress in rural areas, which is also among the key priorities of regional policy [Tatarchuk T.V., 2022]. From the point of view of assessing the economic security of rural areas, their sustainable development acts as a basis for protection against internal and external threats. Ensuring sustainable development in rural areas is an important aspect that requires the development of strategies and programs, as well as the use of modern technologies and innovations for the development of local economies and the creation of new jobs [Alette L., 2022].
In the Orenburg Region, as well as throughout Russia, the process of comprehensive rural development is actively continuing. Within the framework of the state program, all efforts are directed at the formation of a competence center (expert association), the study of topical issues in the industry, the development of a strategy for the introduction of production networks in the agricultural sector through the stimulation of cooperatives, as well as the careful development of various programs aimed at the development of agrologistics, social nutrition; development of proposals for the organization of a system of training entrepreneurial personnel and acceleration of projects in the field of agricultural production, processing of agricultural products and agrologistics [Kolodina E.A., 2019; Madzivhandila T.S., Niyimbanira F., 2020]. At the same time, unresolved problems remain, which we consider as threats to their economic security.
The state program "Integrated Rural Development" has been implemented in the region for a quarter of a year. Among the facilities included in the program, landscaping facilities are particularly popular among residents. Within the framework of this program, work is being carried out on landscaping, construction of children's sports complexes, repair of roads, infrastructure facilities, and support is provided to local agricultural producers (Fig. 2).
There are many opportunities and directions for the implementation of this program. As an example, the village of Tashla in the Tashli district, which was included in the Federal Program, was allocated 134 million rubles in 2023 alone. For every 100 rubles allocated by the federal budget, the region invests extra–budgetary funds – 1 ruble, but this is very difficult for a municipality. Analysis of the implementation of the state program aimed at the effectiveness of implementation, comprehensive development of agricultural areas in the Orenburg region, identified significant aspects affecting the economic stability and well-being of rural areas.
Special attention was paid to identifying key risks that can have a significant impact on the economic stability and prosperity of rural areas.
Рис. 2. Структура государственной программы «Комплексное развитие сельских территорий Оренбургской области»
Fig. 2. Structure of the Integrated Development of Rural Areas in the Orenburg Region State Program
Among the main problems requiring immediate solution, two critically important aspects stand out: first of all, the demographic crisis, which manifests itself in a decrease in the population and its aging, as well as an acute shortage of qualified personnel, which in turn negatively affects the development and modernization of the agricultural sector. These factors are a serious obstacle to achieving the set goals and require an integrated approach to solving them, including the development and implementation of effective measures to attract and retain young people in rural areas, as well as improving the level of training and qualifications of specialists necessary for the dynamic development of the agricultural sector in the region [Ogorodnikov P., 2018]. They can be considered as constraining factors for the sustainable development of rural areas in the Orenburg region.
In Russia, there is a tendency for the deterioration of social infrastructure in rural areas. Every year, as market reforms have been introduced, the situation is becoming more tense. Statistics show that about one in three rural settlements has been abandoned by residents in search of a better life. In some cases, small villages and villages have even completely disappeared from official government documents. As for the construction of social facilities, almost all processes related to the construction of necessary infrastructure facilities in villages have been suspended. This has led to the fact that many settlements have been left without basic conditions for a comfortable life. One of the main reasons that led to such a crisis in agriculture and social infrastructure, i.e. a sharp reduction in funding from government agencies. This decrease in financing had a direct impact on the development of rural areas, leaving them in a state of desolation and decline [Zaloznaya G.M. et al., 2022]. The dynamics of the demographic state of rural areas in the Orenburg region (Table.1) shows a downward trend throughout the reporting period.
The demographic situation in rural areas in the Orenburg region is characterized by negative trends. There is a decrease in the population, a decrease in the birth rate, unstable mortality dynamics and negative natural growth.
There is a steady decline in the rural population. In 2020-2023, the decrease amounted to 21,102 people (-2.7%). The share of the rural population of the region changed from 2020 to 2023, reaching 401% in 2023, which is 0.7% higher than in 2020. This may be due to migration from urban areas to rural areas. The number of rural births decreased from 8,139 in 2020 to 6,481 in 2023 (by 1,658 people, -20.4%). The fertility rate also decreased from 10.4 in 2020 to 8.7 in 2023. There is an unstable dynamics of mortality, the number of deaths in rural areas in 2023 decreased compared to 2021, but remains significantly higher than in 2020. The coefficient in 2022 was 14.4, which is 0.8 higher than in 2020. There is a decrease in natural growth, in 2023 it amounted to 4,230 people, which is a decrease of 1,736 people (- 69.9%) compared to 2020. The natural increase per 1,000 people in 2023 was -4.9, which is 1.7 higher than in 2020.
It is necessary to take measures to stimulate the birth rate, create conditions for attracting the population to rural areas and retain personnel. It is important to take these trends into account when developing regional programs for socio-economic development and agricultural policy. The reasons for the decline in the population are migration to cities, low wages, lack of prospects for young people, and the reasons for the decline in the birth rate are the unfavorable economic situation, lack of social infrastructure, high employment of women [Zaloznaya G.M. et al., 2022].The trend in the dynamics of the rural population in the Orenburg region is more clearly shown in Fig. 3.
Рис. 3. Изменение численности жителей сельских поселений Оренбургской области за 2020-2023 гг. и общей численности населения области
Fig. 3. Change in the number of inhabitants of rural settlements in the Orenburg region from 2020-2023 and in the total population of the region
An analysis of the main demographic indicators of rural territories in the Orenburg region allows us to conclude that the residents of rural territories in the Orenburg region are constantly decreasing. Recently, there has been a steady decrease in the number of residents of rural areas in the Orenburg region. In addition
to the fact that the population decline in the region occurs naturally, one of the factors contributing to this phenomenon is human migration (Table 1).
Figure 4 illustrates this situation more clearly.
Таблица 1
Динамика миграции сельского населения Оренбургской области в 2020-2023 гг.
Table 1
The dynamics of migration of the rural population in the Orenburg region, 2020-2023
Source: compiled by the authors.
Рис. 4. Миграционный оборот сельского населения Оренбургской области в 2020-2023 гг.
Fig. 4. Migration turnover of the rural population in the Orenburg region in 2020-2023
The data in Table 2 and Figure 4 demonstrate the migration decline of the population in rural areas in the Orenburg region throughout the reporting period, which, together with the natural population decline, contributes to a decrease in the rural population and its share in the total population of the region. At the same time, the vast majority of outgoing residents migrate within Russia, although most of them migrated within the region.
The situation with those who arrived in the Orenburg region is a little different. In 2020, the number of arrivals amounted to 23558 people, of whom 21077 people (89.5%) migrated within Russia. At the same time, the majority, namely 14091 people (66.84%), migrated within the region, and 2986 people (14.16%) from another region. 2,481 people immigrated from foreign countries, which is 10.5%. A similar trend is observed in 2021 and 2023.
Based on the analysis of the overall results of migration of the rural population in the Orenburg region for 2020-2023, we
conclude that migration decline is recorded throughout the reporting period. This is a significant threat to the economic security of rural areas in the Orenburg region and an obstacle to achieving one of the goals of the state program "Integrated Rural Development" in the Orenburg region to maintain the share of the rural population in the total population of the region at the level of 40.1% by 2031.
An equally important threat to the economic security of rural areas in the Orenburg region is also the shortage of highly qualified personnel. Table 3 is based on the personnel report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Trade, Food and Processing Industry of the Orenburg Region for 2022-2023.
The analysis of Table 2 allows us to conclude that the low level of categories of workers with higher professional education among the mass professions of the agro- industrial complex in the Orenburg region, which confirms the threat of a shortage of highly qualified specialists of Orenburg region in rural areas.
Таблица 2
Структура и динамика численности и состава работников массовых профессий агропромышленного комплекса Оренбургской области за 2022-2023 годы
Table 2
The structure and dynamics of the number and composition of workers in mass professions of the agro-industrial complex in the Orenburg region for 2022-2023
Source: compiled by the authors.To identify threats to the economic security of rural areas in the Orenburg region, a SWOT analysis was performed, the result of which is a structured representation of the weaknesses and strengths of the facility, its development opportunities and threats to its security (Table 3).
During the analysis, the key factors influencing the economic stability of the region were identified. Strengths and weaknesses were identified, which together pose certain risks to the sustainable development of the rural economy [Guseva E. P, 2023].
Таблица 3
Анализ основных угроз экономической безопасности муниципальных образований Оренбургской области
Table 3
Analysis of the main threats to the economic security of municipal districts in the Orenburg region
Source: compiled by the authors.Conclusion
Thus, the results of the analysis indicate that the Orenburg region is characterized by a steady decline in the rural population. It is necessary to take measures to stimulate the birth rate, create conditions for attracting the population to rural areas and retain personnel. It is important to take these trends into account when developing regional socio-economic development programs and agricultural policy. Recommendations for minimizing negative factors and using positive ones include: increasing profitability (development of effective business models, introduction of modern technologies, search for new markets for products); improving access to resources (state support of the agro-industrial complex, use of investments in agricultural development); development of cooperation (creation of cooperatives and associations for joint production and sales of products, increasing the trading power of regional manufacturers); development of transport infrastructure (construction and reconstruction of highways and railways, creation of modern logistics routes); investment and development of the agricultural sector (attracting investments in the modernization of production, development of innovations, support for rural producers); increasing the prestige of agricultural labor: promotion of agricultural professions, increasing wages of workers, creating favorable working conditions).
The demographic decline in the Orenburg region, as in many regions of Russia, requires the development of measures to stimulate the birth rate and reduce migration from the region. The active policy of the state for the development of rural areas in order to strengthen the economy and improve the standard of living of the population.
Благодарности
The article was prepared in accordance with the state assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for the Federal State Budgetary Institution of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2024
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