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DOI: 10.18413/2409-1634-2022-8-4-0-7

FORECASTS FOR THE FORMATION OF AVAILABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

The problem is raised related to the need to coordinate supply and demand in the agro-food market for the main types of products at the level of healthy consumption norms. It is noted that such a statement of the problem successfully implements the transition to new scientific approaches to the study of food independence, which is based on the self-sufficiency of rational norms. To assess their achievement in the sphere of production and consumption, indices are proposed that characterize the level of formation of physical and economic accessibility of products. Their calculation comes down to assessing the ratio of the level of domestic production (domestic consumption) per capita with the rational norms recommended by the Russian Ministry of Health for a number of food products. As initial data, a joint report by OECD and FAO specialists on trends and prospects for the main agricultural commodity markets, assessed by the AGLINK-COSIMO model system, was used. Analytical calculations show that to ensure the desired level of physical and economic accessibility for a number of significant products (especially fruits, vegetables, milk), the established dynamics of their formation is not enough. In some cases (grain, potatoes, meat, eggs) there is a lack of correlation in the formation of physical and economic accessibility. In this situation, the saturation of the domestic market is partly due to the import of low-quality products, and at the same time the solution of global food problems due to high-quality products. The authors propose to supplement the concept in the field of ensuring food security with provisions based on the balance of physical and economic accessibility of products. These provisions will form the basis of state strategizing and forecasting the development of the agri-food market.

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